Fuel isn't just going up. It's moving differently.

UN estimates indicate oil prices have risen around 45 per cent and gas by 55 per cent since late February UN News, and ASEAN's economic ministers have warned that supply disruptions are already driving up freight, insurance, and logistics costs across the region. The Diplomat For operators, that breaks a key assumption: that cost increases follow a predictable cycle.

They don't anymore.

The issue isn't just rising fuel it's that pricing is moving faster than the contracts and operating rhythms most businesses rely on. That creates exposure across transport and distribution before teams have time to react.

For logistics, warehouse and operations managers across Southeast Asia, the focus now is managing that volatility, not just the cost.

The CeMAT SEA Fuel Checklist

• Check your surcharge mechanism Know which index you're tied to, how often it resets and whether there's any lag. This is where your real exposure sits.
• Identify your highest cost-to-serve lanes Focus on cross-border, multi-drop and last-mile routes; these will move first when fuel rises.
• Recalculate cost per order Fuel increases don't hit evenly. Some customers and regions will become unprofitable faster than others.
• Audit load utilisation Half-full trucks, excess runs and poor routing get expensive quickly when fuel moves.
• Fix dispatch inefficiencies Late cut-offs, split orders and poor batching all create unnecessary trips.
• Speak to carriers early Understand what they're seeing and how they plan to adjust, don't wait for updated surcharges.
• Lock short-term pricing where possible Even temporary stability helps reduce exposure.
• Expect service trade-offs When fuel rises, something gives. Decide early what you're willing to flex.
• Monitor weekly Fuel-driven cost changes are happening faster than most reporting cycles.
• Plan for ongoing volatility This isn't a one-off spike IEEFA analysis indicates that if energy prices remain elevated, the operational cost of fuel-dependent systems could increase by an estimated 32–37%. IEEFA Build movement into your planning.

For most operators, fuel is the first signal that broader pressure is building across the supply chain. Acting early is what protects margin.

This is one of the key operational challenges being worked through across the sector, and will be a focus at CeMAT Southeast Asia 2026, where the industry is coming together to improve visibility, optimise operations and reduce exposure to cost volatility.